Nevertheless, if “very, very aggressive” action is taken in Indonesia, polio could still be quelled and eradicated by the end of 2005 as planned, he says. However, endemic polio in Nigeria may mean the goal of consigning polio to the history books by year end may be unfeasible.

If polio does spread to nearby countries such as China, Laos, Malaysia and the Philippines, it would be “way, way harder to control” than its recent onslaught through Africa and into the Middle East, says Bruce Aylward, co-ordinator of the World Health Organization’s Global Eradication Initiative.